24 Jun 2010
Update on political developments – a new PM and Deputy PM
The Labor Caucus has elected a new Leader and hence a new Prime Minister Julia Gillard and new Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan. The events have been very sudden but as is the way in politics when a challenge is “on” it needs to be dealt with quickly.
A new leader also gives the party room to move on three key issues which are biting hard in the electorate – the RSPT (mining tax), the asylum seekers issues and the forsaken policy on climate change the CPRS.
The new PM has started by being inclusive, especially of the party and the cabinet and making it clear she takes her share of responsibility for failures to date.
What does this mean for us?
One of the first things that will happen is a minor reshuffle – this will be necessary as the new PM held both Employment and Education Portfolios. I believe that this will be kept to a minimum bearing in mind the closeness of the election and the need for a seamless as possible transition.
Her key messages thus far are focused on traditional labor issues, health, education and a “fair” employment regime (code for against Workchoices). She has made it clear she supports a price on carbon but wants to re-engage with the community on this and seeks a consensus around the CPRS (indeed if that is the form of dealing with the greenhouse issue),
Gillard has reset the clock on the RSPT – she wants to negotiate and as a sign of good faith she has stopped the government ads on the mining tax and asked the miners to do likewise in return. Clearly, she supports the idea of the tax but we will need to see how this will play out in practice.
What happens with the RSPT is of critical interest to us. We have lobbied very actively and strongly for the exclusion of quarrying and our incidental quarrying activity from the RSPT. Whilst the newspapers to date are claiming an exemption is likely for quarry materials as of yesterday this was not the actual position.
We have had productive talks with Treasury and Ministers and are confident that our issues are well understood as is the difficulty of applying the tax to our sector. We will continue to make this case in the new environment.
Whilst saying she is resetting the clock on the RSPT she has also indicated however that the Budget is to be brought back into surplus by 2013 which raises the question as to how if there are major changes to the RSPT.
On the asylum issue this is more difficult as there are different views between the left and right of the labor party. The West of Sydney will have a very different view on this to the inner urban seats. Gillard has said that she will be strong on borders (we will have to wait to see what that means).
Election Timing
Importantly, Gillard has made it clear she will face the voters this year as she was not elected by them as PM and they should be given the opportunity to endorse or reject her leadership.
Above all stay tuned